One Answer

  1. Nassim Taleb's “Black Swan Theory” is a theory about the futility of any theory in predicting financial and stock markets. So, the prospects for its application are the widest.

    The black swan metaphor itself has a longer beard than Hottabych. It dates back to the formation of the British Empire, and its authorship is not exactly known. There were only white swans in Europe, and when Captain Cook (who was eaten by the aborigines) sailed to Australia-Oooh!!! “I saw the blacks and brought it back to England. Some philosopher (perhaps J. Mill) has used history to illustrate the unreliability of any inductive inference: Just because we have seen only white swans, it does not follow that all swans are white.

    Since any extrapolation of past experience (shown in the quotation charts) to the future is the most banal induction, Taleb concluded with fantastic wisdom that such procedures cannot guarantee anything in terms of prediction, unfolding it into a whole “theory”.

    The theory applies like this: we look at a growing chart and always remember that it can either continue to grow or start to fall.

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