- Why did everyone start to hate the Russians if the U.S. did the same thing in Afghanistan, Iraq?
- What needs to be corrected in the management of Russia first?
- Why did Blaise Pascal become a religious man at the end of his life?
- How do I know if a guy likes you?
- When they say "one generation", how many do they mean?
Unlike traditional forecasting, foresight technology is proactive in relation to future events. This means that the authors and participants of foresight do not just individually assess the probabilities and risks of certain conditions, as, for example, is customary in the Delphi method, but take an active position and jointly design their current and future activities in such a way as to strengthen positive trends, increase the probability of desired events and extinguish negative, undesirable trends.
The basic methodology of any foresight method includes four levels of activity:
1) present (working with cards, comments of participants, moderation);
2) the future (predictive methods, working with prospects, etc.);
3) planning (strategic analysis, prioritization);
4) networking (tools aimed at creating a dialogue and collaboration of foresight participants).
The basic principles of foresight are:
– the future depends on the efforts made, it can be created;
– the future is variable – it does not stem from the past, but depends on the decisions of participants and stakeholders;
– there are areas in relation to which it is possible to make forecasts, but in general the future cannot be predicted reliably, it is possible to prepare or prepare the future as we want it to be.
Important elements of the foresight approach's specifics are also that it works with the remote future (from the nearest to the remote for 10-15 years) and takes into account alternative development scenarios, deals not only with possible, probable and desirable events, but also with the so – called “fantastic” – unlikely events that can potentially have a significant impact on the future of the area under study.