5 Answers

  1. Is there any way to determine what is the probability that a scientific theory correctly describes reality and is not wrong?

    If it were possible to determine the probability (or rather the degree) of the truth of a particular scientific theory in some way external to its content, logical consistency, empirical verifiability, and heuristic significance for the development of science, then:

    1. at least for some theories of classical science that have historically confirmed their validity and significance and at some point in time gave way to subsequent theories, such a truth calculation would have already been made;

    2. inspired (as well as morally and financially stimulated) by the successful experience suggested in paragraph 1, modern scientists would be engaged not so much in the study of reality with the help of freely put forward and verified theories, but rather in the preliminary calculation of such “true”,” successful”,” effective ” theories, i.e., they would cease to engage in science proper, and thus in the logic of a well-known anecdote they would look for

    Since claim 1 is historically untenable, and claim 2 value-disavows science as a science, the answer to the original question is “No!”

    In addition, a positive answer to the question would imply an absolute observer who does not coincide with either objective reality or the scientific theory that explains it, which is logically impossible.

  2. The task of scientific theory is to provide a generally accepted (standardized for sharing) plausible and simplest description of reality.�

    Since reality is constantly and continuously changing in eternity, science must constantly ensure that theory is consistent with these changes in order to ensure that our behavior is consistent with our constantly changing natural capabilities and abilities.

  3. The probability tends to zero for any theory.�

    The more we know, the greater the field of the unknown, for any theory tends sooner or later, one way or another, to find a fact that does not fit into it.�

    For example, all modern physics is built around general relativity and quantum mechanics, which fundamentally contradict each other.

  4. The probability will be greatest until the reality does not refute the theory . This is followed by a certain decline in the correctness of the theory.
    You see, the theory is basically not wrong until it is criticized and refuted in detail. �
    If you refer to a philosophy, it depends on what view you hold. Moreover, the more we lean towards subjective feelings, the less we can analyze the theory

  5. The theory is never wrong. Just by the definition of the word “theory”. This is a consistent set of definitions, arguments, and conclusions that has been repeatedly tested by experiments and observations (this is its connection with reality, if we are talking about a natural science theory; mathematical theories are not related to reality at all, they are not intended to describe it). Therefore, within the scope of its applicability, the theory is always true (for all times). Another thing is that the theory can be refined just in terms of the boundaries of the field of applicability. And a more advanced theory can be constructed that does not cancel the previous one, but complements/clarifies the previous one.

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