4 Answers

  1. The main reasons for the Great Migration of peoples of the IV-VII centuries were two – the Roman civilization lived too rich and calm, and a huge number of Germanic peoples lived very hard and poor. And the second went to live with the first. The main reasons were the general cooling of the climate and the fact that from the north-east the German tribes were crowded by steppe nomads-the Huns, who came to live with them from places where it was even dirtier and poorer to live. The Germans moved south and settled in the Mediterranean. The Huns were defeated by the Chinese. The Slavs followed the Germans, but did not reach the south and settled the former German lands.�

    Well, what is different in the world in our time from those times? Only secondary causes and factors. Unless the climate in the modern world has ceased to play the role of an important factor. After all, there are down jackets and batteries. The same thousands of people flow from countries where life is bad to countries where life is better. From Tajikistan to Russia, from Russia to Germany, from Germany to the United States. From Moldova – to Ukraine, from Ukraine-to Poland, from Poland – to Belgium. From Chernogorsk – to Abakan, from Abakan-to Perm, from Perm – to Yekaterinburg, from Yekaterinburg – to St. Petersburg, from St. Petersburg – to Moscow, from Moscow – to Montenegro. Every day, thousands of people leave the countries of Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, North and Central Africa-and swim, ride, walk, jump to Europe and North America. No slower than in the IV-VII centuries (it just seems to us from textbooks that it was then fast, by one paragraph). In the same way, new immigrants demolish the culture that sheltered them and create on its basis a mixture of the former local and former native cultures. And their place where they left is taken by immigrants from even more bastard areas, where it is absolutely impossible to live.�

    Humanity is not a hero. It wants to live, and at the first opportunity tries to live better than before. This is almost the main motive of all human history.

  2. according to Gumilyov's theory, the cause of the death of civilizations and migrations of peoples and the emergence of world religions is passion shocks when one people are in the phase of breaking and others are in the phase of rising and higher phase and then such things happen and this has happened many times in history and will happen more than once and now the period of the collapse of European civilization and the emergence of a new world religion that will replace Christianity and Islam begins and two new passion shocks are visible the first since the 19th century. these are Japan China Korea Vietnam Singapore Taiwan and the second is Kazakhstan and part of Russia where the cockroaches disappeared this is only now showing up.

  3. You can imagine a situation in which it will become possible, let's say. But the crisis of modern civilization is a necessary condition for it, not a consequence.

    Under the Romans, first there was a crisis of Rome as a civilization. Gradually, the barbarian colonization of the Empire took place. The Romans themselves did not want to go to the army – they began to enlist barbarians there. As a result, a generation after the barbarian soldiers, there were barbarian officers, a generation after that, barbarian generals, and then barbarian emperors.

    At first, the barbarians were quietly integrated into the local society. Then there were, relatively speaking, “ghettos”. Even later, entire barbarian tribes – “federates” – began to settle in the Empire: they were invited specifically for service. They had first the actual and then the legal right of extraterritoriality.

    Then climate change began. They simultaneously hit the economy of Rome and the surrounding barbarian proto-states. Barbarians for Rome were divided, relatively speaking, into two types – their own and others', near and far. Their own / neighbors had a general idea of civilized life, and they were the ones who were hired as federates. The outsiders / outsiders were completely “wild”.

    As a result, the “savages” fell on “their own” (the Huns – on the Goths), they rushed to the protection of Rome, but he did not have the opportunity to beat them – and the riots began… As a result, the remnants of the Romans, united with “their” barbarians, still crushed the hordes of “savages”, repelling the invasion, but the surrounding barbarian peoples were already quietly settling in Roman territory and ruling the ball…

    Well, now it can, theoretically, come out the same way. Equatorial Africa is currently experiencing rapid demographic growth. To the south of it is a powerful South Africa, to the west – the ocean, to the east-also not the weakest East African states, hardened by the neighborhood with Somalia. But to the north – the disintegrating Libya, in general, the North African Arabs-crisis after crisis. And the Arabs for the European Union are “their own barbarians”, who have long lived, including inside, in whose communities the right of extraterritoriality partially applies…

    Well, if some objective crisis hits, the Central African Negroes will run north and demolish the Arabs. They will rush to Europe in much larger numbers than now, and they will have” on their shoulders ” in the EU and the actual Africans will make their way. The authorities of European countries will not actually be able to do anything – they will collapse. Local residents, together with the Arabs, will create self-defense forces – and, as a result, they will become the real power base of the new authorities. Which, in general, will consist of them…

    The new Europe will already be the fruit of a European-Arab synthesis. Well, something like this scenario is, in principle, possible. At the same time, Russia will play the role of Byzantium – a prosperous island that preserves the achievements of the former civilization.

  4. I don't know how Big it is, but the migration of the Arab world to Europe is in full swing. In Germany, France and the UK, Muslim neighborhoods that live only according to the commandments and laws of the Koran have already become the norm. So I wouldn't be surprised that in 10-20 years the European civilization will be on the verge of extinction.

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